Heat deaths could rise 50 times in 50 years, claims new report
14 Jul 2025
Rising temperatures and an aging population could result in a fiftyfold increase in heat related deaths in England and Wales over the next half century, suggests a new research paper.
Writing in PLoS, UCL and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine scientists reported the results of 15 scenarios, involving climate change and an increasingly older population demographic over 50 years.
It revealed that even the least challenging of these – involving a 1.6°C rise in temperature over pre-industrial levels by the century end and high levels of adaptation – would see heat deaths rise six times.
This would mean the present baseline of 634 annual deaths reaching 3,007 per year in the 2050s, to 4,004 and 4,592 in the two succeeding decades.
The worst-case model assumes 4.3 degrees of warming over the 50 years with minimal adaptation. That would result in a more than fifty-fold increase:10,317 in the 2050s, 19,478 in the 2060s, and 34,027 in the 2070s.
Warned senior author, Dr Clare Heaviside of UCL Bartlett School environment, energy and resources:
“Our collaborative research paints a sobering picture of the consequences of climate change, under a range of potential social and economic pathways. Over the next 50 years, the health impacts of a warming climate are going to be significant.”
She added it was possible to mitigate severity by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and planning adaptations.
These included passive cooling systems, better building ventilation and heat management, active cooling systems such as air conditioning, urban forests and greater support for vulnerable populations.
While climate predictions have long warned of the potential human cost, few had factored in the degree of population ageing, leading to an underestimation of the effects of warming, said the researchers.
Lead author, Dr Rebecca Cole of London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine’s department of public health, environments and society said much would depend upon increased commitment to making effective adaptations.
“Our research shows how increases in heat-related deaths are not just a consequence of rising temperatures — they’re also driven by how we build our cities, care for vulnerable populations, and address social inequality. Concerted adaptation strategies are required, well in excess of those over the last 30 years,” she commented.
Pic: Maggie Zahn
