‘Potash price rise undermines global food security’ warning
25 Feb 2024
Rising prices for potash across the globe are creating a threat to the level of global food security warns a new joint study by UCL, the University of Edinburgh and the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology.
Lack of affordable potash is contributing to increased potassium deficiency in farming soil. Potassium is essential for plant growth that aids photosynthesis and respiration, and thus crop yields, potash or fertiliser potassium is spread on fields to replenish missing potassium.
The inability to replace lost minerals is creating a replenishment deficit with an estimated one fifth of all global farmland in the ‘severe’ deprivation category, warn the scientists.
However, said the Nature Food study, in some areas the problem is markedly worse. The percentage rises to nearly half (44) in South-East Asia, with Latin America well over a third (39%) and Sub-Saharan Africa on 30%.
Study co-author Professor Mark Maslin of UCL Geography department warned: “Potassium is critical to sustaining the crop yields that keep the world fed, and its depletion poses a significant threat to the food security of millions of people around the world. This is an overlooked issue that needs to be addressed with a range of actions as the world population continues to grow.”
Just 12 countries dominate the potassium fertiliser market, which is valued at close to £12 billion. Of these, just four – Canada, Russia, Belarus and China – account for 80% of potash supply. Crucially, more than half this percentage figure is accounted for by Russia and Belarus production.
The researchers described how a “perfect storm” of factors – rising fertiliser demand and fuel prices, pandemic recovery, government actions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine – saw 2022 potash prices leap a staggering 500% above the previous year.
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the UK, US, Canada and the EU imposed import sanctions on the country and its European ally, Belarus, which further exacerbated the price spike. Since then, potash prices have fallen has fallen by around 50%, sufficiently high to imply many farmers will be unable to access sufficient fertiliser.
Maslin’s co-author, Edinburgh’s Dr Peter Alexander remarked: “The volatility of potash prices has major implications across the global food system. Access to potassium is vital for farmers to maintain their crop yields, but the recent high cost of potash makes it more difficult for the most vulnerable to obtain.”
They called for the national or international policies and regulations governing the sustainable management of soil potassium, along the lines applied to nitrogen and phosphorus.
The UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology’s Will Brownlie was lead author for the work. He added:
“There’s much that we still don’t understand about the effects that artificial potassium enrichment has on nearby ecosystems. By wisely handling nutrients like nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium together, we can reap multiple benefits, prevent pollution, boost crop yields, and minimise nutrient loss. It's about coordinating our approach for better farming outcomes.”
The trio made six recommendations for improvement. These include:
- Global assessment of current potassium stocks and flows
- National capabilities for monitoring, predicting and responding to price fluctuations
- Help for farmers to maintain sufficient soil potassium levels
- Evaluating the environmental effects of potash mining
- Development of a global circular potassium economy
- Governmental cooperation through the UN and other agencies
