Climate change agreement achieved unilateral compliance

Taken together, the carbon emissions of all 36 countries that committed to the Kyoto Protocol, signed in 1997, complied with their targets, according to a new study.

The study also showed there was a low cost associated with meeting these targets, up to 0.1% of the EU’s GDP and an even lower percentage of Japan’s GDP. This is about one tenth to a quarter of what experts predicted in 1997, when the agreement was made.

Professor Michael Grubb, editor-in-chief at Climate Policy, the journal in which the paper was published said: “There is often scepticism about the importance of international law, and many critics claim that the Kyoto Protocol failed. The fact that countries have fully complied is highly significant, and it helps to raise expectations for full adherence to the Paris Agreement.”

The authors of the paper said that nine out of 36 countries emitted higher levels than pledged under the climate agreement. However this was only 36 mega-tonnes of CO₂ equivalent per year – about 1% of the average annual emission capped by the international treaty.

When figures were compiled, all countries that agreed to the Kyoto Protocol in the first commitment period (2008-12), were found to have emitted less carbon by almost 2.5 giga-tonnes of CO₂ equivalent per year.

As part of the flexibility agreements agreed upon in 1997, countries were allowed to trade assigned carbon units, as well as receive carbon credits as a result of reducing emissions. New Zealand, the EU and Japan were the biggest net importers of carbon units during the period with Poland, the Czech Republic and Romania the largest exporters of these units.

The paper was published in Climate Policy.