Novel climate predictions aim to help save coral reefs worldwide

A set of new climate model projections will enable conservationists to understand which coral reefs will be affected by annual coral bleaching.

Based on global climate models, these projections predict when and where annual coral bleaching will occur. The first areas predicted to be affected are reefs in Taiwan and around the Turks and Caicos archipelago.

Erik Solheim, head of the UN Environment Programme, said: “These predictions are a treasure trove for those who are fighting to protect one of the world's most magnificent and important ecosystems from the ravages of climate change. The projections show us where we still have time to act before it's too late.”

The study, published in Scientific Reports, estimates if worldwide greenhouse gas emissions aren’t reduced and current trends continue, severe bleaching will occur every year on 99% of the world’s reefs within the century. Even if emission reductions exceed pledges made by countries under the Paris Agreement more than 75% of the world’s coral reefs will bleach annually before 2070.

Dr van Hooidonk, from the University of Miami and study leader, said: “Bleaching that takes place every year will invariably cause major changes in the ecological function of coral reef ecosystems. Further, annual bleaching will greatly reduce the capacity of coral reefs to provide goods and services, such as fisheries and coastal protection, to human communities.”

Last year the Great Barrier Reef was affected on a large scale, with 90% of the coral bleached and more than 20% of the coral dying. Coral bleaching occurs when sea temperatures rise, leading to the algae inhabiting them to leave, resulting in white coral. The algae loss causes the coral to become vulnerable to starvation and disease.

Dr Gabby Ahmadia, lead marine scientist at the World Wildlife Fund, said: “We are going to need to be much more innovative and proactive if we want to see coral reefs thrive into the next century.  Conventional conservation is not going to cut it against the impacts of climate change. We need to embrace the new climate reality to guide efforts to save our oceans.”