As researchers discover that seasonal flu is seeded by viruses originating in Asia – one scientist thinks that pandemic influenza is a construct designed for commercial gain.
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| Influenza virons, magnified approximately 100,000 times. Outbreaks of influenza A are seeded by viruses originating in Asia according to new research |
The assumption is that pandemic influenza is an exceptionally deadly form of seasonal flu, however Peter Doshi from MIT says this is hard to support. He has conducted a study that challenges common beliefs about the flu – in particular that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention claim that “the hallmark of pandemic influenza is excess mortality.”
He based his study on an analysis of more than a century of influenza mortality data and found that the peak monthly death rates in pandemic seasons were no higher than – and were sometimes exceeded by – those for severe nonpandemic seasons.
Doshi suggests one of the reasons that pandemic flu might be so misunderstood is that commercial interests may be playing a role in inflating the perceived impact of pandemics.
“With public policies such as universal vaccination being discussed and more than $5 billion of federal money spent on preparing for the next pandemic, the study raises many important questions of public policy,” he said.
Despite Doshi’s theory – the fact remains that flu is a deadly disease that affects people worldwide. According to the World Health Organisation, Annual influenza epidemics are thought to infect 5 – 15% of the world population each year and, despite vaccination programmes, cause 3 – 5 million cases of severe illness and between 250,000 – 500,000 deaths.
One of the serious challenges to creating flu vaccines is that the global migration pattern of influenza viruses has been a mystery. Several competing hypotheses have emerged including migration between the Northern and Southern hemispheres following the seasons, migration out of the tropics where influenza viruses were thought to circulate continuously, and migration out of China.
Now, Scientists at the University of Cambridge have found that each year since 2002 influenza A (H3N2) viruses have migrated out of what they call the “East and Southeast Asian circulation network” and spread throughout the world. The team found that new strains emerge in East and Southeast Asia and then about six to nine months later reach Europe and North America. Several months later still, the strains arrive in South America.
Lead author of the study, Derek Smith of the University of Cambridge, emphasised that the flu vaccine works very well, and protects the 300 million people vaccinated each year. But, from time to time, a new strain emerges after the vaccine strain selection has already been made.
“The ultimate goal of our work is to increase our ability to predict the evolution of influenza viruses. This study is one step along that path and in particular highlights the importance of ongoing collaborations and surveillance in East and Southeast Asia, and expanding these collaborations in the future,” said Smith.
Whether a flu outbreak is classed as a pandemic or not is unimportant in the battle to vaccinate the population said Elias A. Zerhouni, MD, director of the U.S. National Institutes of Health.
“By applying an innovative strategy to map differences in seasonal influenza strains worldwide, Smith and his colleagues have offered important insights into patterns of influenza virus spread that could greatly improve surveillance and vaccine strain selection,” he said.
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Spread of avian flu by drinking water:
Spread of avian flu by drinking water can explain small clusters in households
Proved awareness to ecology and transmission is necessary to understand the spread of avian flu. For this it is insufficient exclusive to test samples from wild birds, poultry and humans for avian flu viruses. Samples from the known abiotic vehicles also have to be analysed. There are plain links between the cold, rainy seasons as well as floods and the spread of avian flu. That is just why abiotic vehicles have to be analysed. The direct biotic transmission from birds, poultry or humans to humans can not depend on the cold, rainy seasons or floods. Water is a very efficient abiotic vehicle for the spread of viruses – in particular of fecal as well as by mouth, nose and eyes excreted viruses.
Infected birds and poultry can everywhere contaminate the drinking water. All humans have very intensive contact to drinking water. To prove viruses in water is difficult because of dilution. If you find no viruses you can not be sure that there are not any. On the other hand in water viruses remain viable for a long time. Water has to be tested for influenza viruses by cell culture and in particular by the more sensitive molecular biology method PCR.
There is a widespread link between avian flu and water, e.g. in Egypt to the Nile delta or Indonesia to residential districts of less prosperous humans with backyard flocks and without central water supply as in Vietnam: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no12/06-0829.htm. See also the WHO web side: http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/emerging/h5n1background.pdf .
Transmission of avian flu by direct contact to infected poultry is an unproved assumption from the WHO. There is no evidence that influenza primarily is transmitted by saliva droplets: “Transmission of influenza A in human beings” http://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473309907700294/abstract?iseop=true .
Avian flu infections may increase in consequence to increase of virus circulation. In hot climates/the tropics flood-related influenza is typical after extreme weather and floods. Virulence of influenza viruses depends on temperature and time. Special in cases of local water supplies with “young” and fresh H5N1 contaminated water from low local wells, cisterns, tanks, rain barrels, ponds, rivers or rice paddies this pathway can explain small clusters in households. At 24°C e.g. in the tropics the virulence of influenza viruses in water amount to 2 days. In temperate climates for “older” water from central water supplies cold water is decisive to virulence of viruses. At 7°C the virulence of influenza viruses in water amount to 14 days.
Human to human and contact transmission of influenza occur – but are overvalued immense. In the course of influenza epidemics in Germany, recognized clusters are rare, accounting for just 9 percent of cases e.g. in the 2005 season. In temperate climates the lethal H5N1 virus will be transferred to humans via cold drinking water, as with the birds in February and March 2006, strong seasonal at the time when drinking water has its temperature minimum.
The performance to eliminate viruses from the drinking water processing plants regularly does not meet the requirements of the WHO and the USA/USEPA. Conventional disinfection procedures are poor, because microorganisms in the water are not in suspension, but embedded in particles. Even ground water used for drinking water is not free from viruses.
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=26096&Cr=&Cr1
Ducks and rice [paddies = flooded by water] major factors in bird flu outbreaks, says UN agency
Ducks and rice fields may be a critical factor in spreading H5N1
26 March 2008 – Ducks, rice [fields, paddies = flooded by water! Farmers on work drink the water from rice paddies!] and people – and not chickens – have emerged as the most significant factors in the spread of avian influenza in Thailand and Viet Nam, according to a study carried out by a group of experts from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and associated research centres.
“Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia: ducks, rice and people” also finds that these factors are probably behind persistent outbreaks in other countries such as Cambodia and Laos.
The study, which examined a series of waves of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza in Thailand and Viet Nam between early 2004 and late 2005, was initiated and coordinated by FAO senior veterinary officer Jan Slingenbergh and just published in the latest issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States.
Through the use of satellite mapping, researchers looked at a number of different factors, including the numbers of ducks, geese and chickens, human population size, rice cultivation and geography, and found a strong link between duck grazing patterns and rice cropping intensity.
In Thailand, for example, the proportion of young ducks in flocks was found to peak in September-October; these rapidly growing young ducks can therefore benefit from the peak of the rice harvest in November-December [at the beginning of the cold: Thailand, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos are situated – different from Indonesia – in the northern hemisphere].
“These peaks in congregation of ducks indicate periods in which there is an increase in the chances for virus release and exposure, and rice paddies often become a temporary habitat for wild bird species,” the agency said in a news release.
“We now know much better where and when to expect H5N1 flare-ups, and this helps to target prevention and control,” said Mr. Slingenbergh. “In addition, with virus persistence becoming increasingly confined to areas with intensive rice-duck agriculture in eastern and south-eastern Asia, evolution of the H5N1 virus may become easier to predict.”
He said the findings can help better target control efforts and replace indiscriminate mass vaccination.
FAO estimates that approximately 90 per cent of the world’s more than 1 billion domestic ducks are in Asia, with about 75 per cent of that in China and Viet Nam. Thailand has about 11 million ducks.
Dipl.-Ing. Wilfried Soddemann – Free Science Journalist – soddemann-aachen@t-online.de